"I opened up the radar app on my iPhone and sure enough, a big ominous red splotch hovered over my location. But the thing was, I had no idea how long it would last. I had the map right in front of me, but I couldn't figure it out! The animation wasn't any help, it was too jumpy and splotchy to tell whether it'd be ten minutes or an hour," he wrote in an e-mail to CNN.
"There had to be a better way. And if it didn't exist, we'd have to build the damn thing."
So the two engineers downloaded free radar data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and built a software program that would read the storm blotches on the map more precisely against locations on the ground. Then they devised computer algorithms to map the velocity of storms and predict their paths.
Finally, they added tools to let them monitor and update their predictions in real time. Radar stations only take new weather images every 5 or 10 minutes, which makes most radar animations look like stuttery slideshows. Dark Sky's algorithm predicts what storm patterns look like between the radar frames, creating an animated weather map that flows more smoothly.
"We take a sort of statistical approach to predicting the weather, rather than using meteorological modeling," Grossman said. "So it works well over short periods of time, where the fluid dynamics of the atmosphere are approximately linear. But over longer periods of time it breaks down. The reason we do it this way is that the statistical approach actually works better for the immediate future, and that's what we're primarily concerned with."
Some weather experts are skeptical, however. CNN meteorologist Sean Morris warns the app should be used with caution.
"Because it relies solely on statistical information, it may not be able to predict significant changes in the weather due to complex atmospheric dynamics – changes that could happen in a matter of minutes," he said.
"The app assumes that areas of precipitation do not dissipate, change in size, intensity or shape. But this is rarely the case," Morris continued. "Small rain showers can grow into gigantic severe thunderstorms in a matter of minutes in volatile atmospheric situations. Even today's supercomputers can't accurately predict the onset or ending of precipitation down to the minute."
Grossman and Turner hope to lanch Dark Sky next March for the iPhone, iPad and iPod Touch. (They expect it to cost somewhere in the $5 to $10 range; an Android version may follow.) The two developed a prototype of the app, then turned to
Kickstarter, a site that crowdsources funding of innovative projects, to raise the $35,000 needed to finish it.
"I think most weather people are stuck with the same mindset of ten or twenty years ago when it comes to how weather data is delivered," said Grossman, who believes "the current apps out there are just slightly more advanced versions of the TV weatherman or newspaper forecast."
Grossman put a prototype of Dark Sky to use on his wedding day last June, when storm clouds were threatening his outdoor ceremony. Everyone was planning to take shelter when Grossman consulted the app on his phone, which told him the rain would hold off for an hour. It did, and the couple got married outdoors as planned.
© 2012 Cable News Network. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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Curious about how this works. I hope I'm missing sontheimg obvious, but I can't find an intuitive way of moving between years (no swipe). Tapping on a day brings up a schedule for that day: great. But there's no apparent way to highlight/enter spans for large blocks of time (as per the preview image) events marked out as multi-week all day events in my main calendar aren't flagged up in any special way. Doesn't seem to have any data entry facility. And some of the UI is a little buggy (try hitting the calendar button more than a few times) Again, I'm hoping I'm just being dense/blind/missing sontheimg obvious, but on first play, it doesn't really seem to offer all that much.Not to hijack the thread, but Timeli app works pretty well for planning blocks of time. What draws me to 12 months is the idea of integration with the native calendar. Timeli looks great and functions well, but I rarely fire it up simply because it's an additional body of data to manage
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Nice idea, unfortunately it won't work properly on the real world. Hopefully the guys behind it are acting in good faith and this app is not another HOAX. Cheers
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People here don't really see the value in information design, it seems. This app offers quick, easily understandable, and precise short-term weather predictions in a very slick package. That alone makes it worth it. (And then there's the icing on the cake: Dark Sky is actually pretty to look at, unlike just about every readily available doppler radar image out there. Ah, but experience has taught me people enjoy ugly things if only because they're familiar.)
Sure, you can roughly calculate when rain will fall over you if you've got radar data on hand. Is it convenient? No. Is it handy? No. Can you do it if your math skills are shaky? No. If your maths are up to snuff, do would have as clear or intuitive a picture as you would if there were a smoothly interpolated animation along with a graph detailing precipitation at your precise location over time? Hell no.
Look at it this way: you could get a brochure with the BART schedule and figure out where you're going and how much you'll end up paying, or you could just get the BART widget by Bret Victor and just let it show you what you want to know.
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All of you people who think this is a stupid app are just mad you dont have the brains to com up with it yourself. Adam is my cousin and i can say he is one of the smartest people i know. If you have something rude to say about it keep it to yourself and leave the webpage. The app is not a scam and if you think it is than why are you wasting your time reading this and writing a comment on it?
What a scam this app is. Of course its easy to predict when it rains within the hour. This is not magic, its about taking radar and location information and translating when the rain clouds will be over you. I think you can do this yourself without paying for an app.
I could predict down to the second when it will rain. Doesn't mean my predictions are gonna be right.
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It's already been said but I'll say it again... Look outside.
Worthless app, but w/e most of them are.
I don't need an app to tell me when it's going to rain. My aches & pain tell me a few days ahead of schedule. It's been this way since I injured my back in 08 performing CPR.
hahaha you hurt your back performing CPR? thats hilarious! hahaha what a way to injur yourself
I'm not sure why but this wbisete is loading extremely slow for me. Is anyone else having this issue or is it a issue on my end? I'll check back later on and see if the problem still exists.
Hmm I like it and it's definitely a now' idea but doesn't Google do this adelary? Isn't that free? I DO love the look, but the utilitarian nature of Google and/or free apps with a Mac make much more design sense.Like the blog!
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What a great app! Smart, clean and flawlessly deginsed. Too bad it doesn't have marketing and sales job postings though, cause we are hiring for our new office in New York, hint hint. Thanks @swissmiss for sharing, we've retweeted your tweet.
How about integrating this app with delighta. com so that it can automatically enter this information in the user's google calendar? The app could check every 60 minutes and send the forecast to the user's google calendar via SMS if it thinks it is going to rain.
How about looking out a window?
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Electronic barometers are more effective and relatively cheap. Newer models will display indoor/ temperatures and sense the severity of an approaching low pressure system up to 12 hours in advance.
Come on people, a barometer doesn't tell you when it's going to rain. It can give you a hint that it could rain, but pressures could fall well before it rains or just before it rains or the pressure could be rising while it is still raining. It's not useful for this application...
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I have an app that predicts when it'll rain, it's called my brain. i look up, see clouds, and go inside.
Then you must have been one of the people at his wedding who got pwned by his app.
Fantastic! Sound's like a great idea. Engineers and mathematicians have been using interpolations for years. This has great potential!
It’s too bad all these small minded people have nothing better to do than bash the brilliant efforts of larger minds.
I'm looking forward to using it when it comes to the Android Market.
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The RobotHead app tells me the future up to a 1000 years on any subject not just the weather
These guys should really think about moving forward with the android app at the same time or even first. I know it probably won't sell very well, but the MOTOACTIVE or w/e it's called is being marketed as a personal fitness device. The ability to predict rainstorms within an hour's time would be VERY appealing for a product like that. It also probably has more sensors (temperature) that could improve the forcasting abilities (or just tell you the temp...)
This app will probably work just fine for rain areas that don't change shape, size, intensity and or direction over time. Unfortunately, that's about 5% of the time. Good luck!
Apparently you need to read how it works. Over short timescales of a few minutes, you can consider weather behavior to be practically linear. That's why their predictions only go up to an hour. Most of the time their predictions are good only for the next several minutes.
In other words, this app might buy you a few extra minutes outdoors before getting soaked. Or it might tell you that running inside is unnecessary.
The only hesitation I have about this app is regarding lightning. Hopefully it will take that into account and tell people to take cover even if rain is unlikely.
My app forecasts to within a millisecond on when it will rain, and to within a microsecond of when it will snow. The important term there is "forecasts".
Uhh im gonna call BS
Absolutely fabulous tool for photographing rainbows! And other photo projects. And knowing just how long you will be stuck on a trail under a tree waiting the rain out is invaluable too.
If you're out standing under a tree in a rainstorm, then I really think you should be downloading the Lightning Predicter app instead...
Just wonder why Apple fan is so prone to misinformation and propaganda? weather tracking data is there, a little google search will tell you where to expect what. Selling an app for $10 just by pulling free information online (indeed the government paid for these so-called free services), combing with GPS location, that must be easy. Remember that from the scientific point of view, pin point a location of a rain is much of lucky draw. Even super computer has hard time dealing with complicated simulations, I just wonder how your phone is going to tell you much for nothing? oh no, you will pay for it.
Sorry but let me look at the last hour of radar images and I think anyone could predict when it was going to rain.
I have an even more precise app for this function that will measure rain fall to the second. Roll down the window, stick your iPhone out, wait 30 secs, observe. If aqueous hydroxide of hydrogen obscures the shiny glass, it's raining. If the phone stops working it's raining really hard. Send $0.99 to http://www.useless-ideas.com
Well, that beats my app. It just tells you that's raining right now. Somewhere.
I admire the idea and someone would find some use for it if it works. There will always be skeptics and critics who think they know everything right off the bat. All these apps and hardware are so new that no one can possibly understand them, let alone shutting them out before the apps are even developed. Yes, it relies on existing technology and all those two guys are doing may be simply connecting the dots and adding some alogrithms to it to "predict" something. But then, isn't it how science and technology moves forward little by little?
And yeah, they may have watched Back to the Future too many times. What's the problem with that? Someone must have watched "Star Trek – Wrath of Kahn" before inventing the flip phones.
Yes, I agree that tech evolves. But there is a limit on what can be done. I used to do a lot of GIS and triangulation in my work, let me tell you, there is nothing mysterious here. Your phone cannot do the thing supposed to be done by a supercomputer. The point of this whole article is about "hey, I have something cool, let get some money for this freaking idea". Maybe freaking for novice, but I do suggest whoever out there take a lesson on weather forecasting before telling a bs story. If you think a simple triangulation and distance weighting of weather grids from NOAA can give you good approximation, learn again.
UP To An Hour..'.don't need a weather man to know which way the winds blowing'.....look out your window.....
oh i forgot you can SEE wind outside your window...Idiot read about what the app actually is. its not a wind predictor. It tells you exactly when it will rain. Something you might want to know when making plans or taking a road trip or something...Do some more reading before commenting on this. I think its a great idea. AND IT WORKS!!!
Great idea! It could be very useful for planning whether you have enough time to mow the lawn before it starts raining or if it's safe to go for a walk without the umbrella or shopping for groceries and such. I'd buy it.
I have an app myself too and it is the most reliable. I take a look outside the window/door/etc (depending on where I am) and it's telling me with 100% accuracy whether it rains or not. I call it 24 hours a day weather forecast. Just take a look outside! Also, it is free....
Yep, and in the meantime shoot clips for Geico, is that you?
WRONG. This type of knowledge is reserved for God only. People using this app will be hunted down by the faithful and no doubt be beheaded.
never heard of Geoengineering? They have only been doing it for at least a decade.
I have an App on my phone for the rain. If i'm in my car, i hold the phone out the window and if raindrops hit it, there is a high likelyhood that there is rain on the other side of the window. Works every time and it's free.
So you can hold your iPhone out the window of your car and if it gets wet, that is your statistically accurate measurement of what the weather will be for the next 60 minutes? Obvioulsy you can look out a window and see what the weather is at that precise moment, but that's not what this app is touting. Is it giving you a statictically calculated probability of what the weather will be like for the next hour.
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You cannot expect someone to understand the role of this apps if they are looking for it in Apple store after reading the article, can you? Now, if this application will offer certainty in terms of raining on a cloudy sky, even for an hour interval, it's simply huge.
someone has been watching too much "back to the future 2" here. The app is only stating the obvious weather in the most statistically safe frame of reference. Any person can look at the radar picture and get a wind reading and know this. It's really simple math, nothing magical. With knowing wind direction and speed, width of precipitation, and my location, I don't even need a calculator if I have the radar pic in hand.
Your typical housewife planning on grocery shopping and needing to stand outside and load countless bags in the car or guy that needs to know if it's safe to mow the lawn or not is not that smart. You would be the arrogant idiot that would miss out on making tons of money on this app while the guy that did is laughing all the way to the bank. Watch out for arrogance, it makes you blind!
Thank you Einstein, I would just check the apps if you don't mind, I'm overwhelmed.
You're an idiot with a typical "C" student reply. Storm motion isn't determined by the surface wind (i.e., your "wind reading"). It's determined by winds through the depth of the troposphere, particularly in the mid-levels. Also, atmospheric motion is non-linear (refer to a text book about atmospheric dynamics for an explanation, if you can follow it).
Yet all radar data comes from the NWS unless you are one of the lucky few toting around a DOW. Your radar isn't going to get any better people.
Depends on how the developer has pmergamrod the client they are distributing. Some developers create launchers inside their apps to enable easy updates, but the majority doesn't. So in general, I would say that you won't get updates for it if you got it off your computer. PS. Check out ZENONIA and Baseball Superstars on the Android Market!
This APP is flawed from the beginning. For starters, triangulation of mobile locations and even GPS isnt as accurate as most people think. Its also not as real-time as most people think. If an app cannot guarantee locations statistically to within 99.999% you wont get accurate real time rain predictions. Its a statistical fact. Second, they are baising their analysis on radar data sounds like which also is off, based on rounding of the atmosphere, inaccuracy of data, conversion of radar data to geo locations, and then fill in data between loop frames which itself must have a low level of accuracy. Again its a statistical problem. In math we know if you expect to round off a number to say the 4 place, your data accuracy needs to have that level as well. So, its a flawed model. Until the government releases or creates that level of real time data for the public, its pointless. My high def mobile radars tell me all I need to know....
Cows go moo. I have gas. Will you please pull my finger?
I would say it's as accurate as most humans will notice or need really. My Iphone will show my exact location matching up with satellite image (even down to the part of the house I am in) and even show me walking or driving. This could be because I live in a major metropolitan area with tons of towers nearby. A delay in a few seconds or a mismatch in a few feet is not going to matter to most people with this app or any other.
I must say, as very much as I enjoyed rndaieg what you had to say, I couldnt help but lose interest after a while. Its as if you had a wonderful grasp around the subject matter, but you forgot to include your readers. Perhaps you should think about this from extra than one angle. Or maybe you shouldnt generalise so considerably. Its better if you think about what others may have to say instead of just going for a gut reaction to the subject. Think about adjusting your personal believed process and giving others who may read this the benefit of the doubt.
I wrote an app once that told you when you needed to take a dump. It was actually pretty simple, as soon as you felt like you needed to take a dump you pressed 1 on your iphone and it immediatly told you to head to the bathroom.
Hey, we're finally catching up to Back to the Future!
another Back to the Future prediction comes true! First, it was the Kinect, and now the weather forecast!
accuweather's weatherlab allows you to predict up to 2 or 3 hours with remarkable accuracy once you become accustomed to their system. We use it every day nationwide for different construction jobs we have and their mobile app works just as well. It is a paid service though.
Let me draw a picture for you and hopefully you will understand the role of this apps. Think about yourself being on a football stadium with thunders and lightnings over your head on a cloudy sky, and you think to yourself, should I leave now in order to stay dry or should I linger another 10 min? The apps it will tell you if it's going to rain next min or anywhere in the next 60 min. Is that helpful for you to know, hell it is.
If there is lightning going on overhead I'd think the last thing you should be worried about is whether you're going to get wet! So many people don't take the threat of lightning seriously...
Who cares. Enjoy life regardless of if it's raining or not. Most of us aren't allergic to water.
well everything is rnnuing smoothly thank you sir. linked up well and is playing damn great!!! love the fact that if i want to i can stream it through the app or just download it to my phone. Bad ass!! can't wait for the rest of my tunes to upload lol. the upload isn't doing to bad either i sent up 10k and so far its doing about 140 per hr. so it might not take as long as im expecting it to.
I'm still waiting for the God app where I can create anything at the touch of a button.
Wouldn't it be easier to just look outside if you're so worried about immediate weather conditions? Better yet, you can just hang a weather string up. If it's blowing, it's windy. If it's dripping, it's probably raining. Problem solved.
LMAO...............
That's the point dummy, if it's cloudy you don't know for sure if it's raining next minute or not. Stop reading please, it doesn't fits you.
Wow, talk about a harsh response to such a benign post. There's someone who takes the weather personally.
Now that's funny...
Sounds to me like you are the dummy. if you need this app to complete your life so you know exactly when a weatherman says it will rain, then it is you who have an OCD problem.
I would love to see what would happen about six months after you have the app and then you can't get internet service. Afraid to go outside because it might rain!! This world is going downhill very fast.
That would be a windows app
If weather were an exact science then this would of been captured years ago. Bit since it is not, it will NEVER be captured.... Yes, while earth models, mathematics, and physics are not going anywhere, the natural uncertainties
dynamically change to much to be captured by any feature space.............
I'm sure that we will home in on more accurate readings in the future. Just because we can't explain all variation now doesn't mean that we won't be able to explain more in the future.
Actually the application is going to be really useful for those who really got to know if it's raining now or next your, especially when you have an outside sport activity or any sort of event like he mentioned about his wedding ceremony. Regular weather apps dont tell you when it's cloudy if it's really going to rain or not, they will mention only about humidity which comprises the whole day, which is not helpful when you have an outdoor activity and need to know this hour what's going to happen. Kudos to the developers.
I agree with one caveat. I'd like to know how their app would deal with thunderstorms vs rain showers. It sounds like they just time how long before you are located under the radar echo. This could be dangerous for thunder, as lightning can strike 20 miles (up to 200 miles!) outside the footprint of the main rain shower area. So I wouldn't want to be sitting outside at a little league game up to the time that the app said it would start raining. We shall see how they deal with safety measures of that type.
While I applaud them for being able to write a program to extrapolate between (radar) volume scans and use GPS to figure out when you'll be 'under the green blobs'. This is not prediction. It will be useful in telling people when a certain rainshower is going to be over them, it won't be able to deal with new showers that pop up and also won't be able to handle abrupt shift in storm track with more severe storms.
I heard they're using optical flow and machine learning algorithms on the backend so it's actually true prediction- not interpolation- and it's prediction that gets better with time and experience.
I said extrapolation, not interpolation. They are using the past volume scans and telling you (if it doesn't change direction and speed) how long it will be before the echo is on top of you. This is not prediction. Optical flow is simply saying "i'm watching the progress of this blob". I don't know about machine smart algorithms. But each rain shower or thunderstorm can behave any way it wants to depending on 10-30 variables; so just because something happened a certain way last time doesn't mean it will this time at all. That's just my guess at what you mean by "better with exerience".
I don't think this will be much more useful than the current weather apps that we have. The current weather apps give the weather predictions hour by hour, but as we all know (or should know) is that even those are not always correct. If you can't have hour by hour that is always correct, I doubt that minute by minute will be much better.
I think the dogs have the right idea and yes they might melt in the rain. I for one do not like to get my furs wet ehtier! hee hee JB
Really? The weathermen can't predict hot weather in Texas in July. Now if they would deposit a $1 in my PayPal account every time they were wrong I'd be interested.
How far in advance it can tell you of rain will be the deciding factor in it's success. 1/2 hour may not be useful, but a few hours notice would be great. Also brings up the fact that I wish iPhones had a temperature gauge on them, a lot of personal use apps could be made from tracking one's local/immediate temperature.
I'm sure the iPhone has a built-in thermometer. My old Apple Newton (anyone remember this?) had one and you could pull it up if you knew how. The device uses it to know when it needs to shutdown charging or operation due to temperature extremes. Not sure why they don't make it available.
cmc033098 on September 19, 2011 Giving away this lpotap because i just got a macbook pro so theres no need for me to have it all you have to do is comment saying GATEWAY FAVORITE LIKE SUBSCRIBE THANKS FOR WATCHING! Category Film Animation
Hi Lisa, I truly wish you the best in all your future eoreavnds. Whenever I was at a crossroad and trying to make a decision, my very wise grandmother would say: You can stay back in ease and comfort or move forward to growth. Although we (the QVC viewers) will miss seeing you, I am so happy you have chosen to move forward. A year and a half ago, I left my job of nine years to accept a more challenging position. At first I worried that I had made the wrong decision afterall this new position was much more difficult and required me to learn new things. However, this challenge was just the thing I needed to inject new passion into my career.I commend you for taking that leap of faith. It is not easy to leave a comfortable position, especially in a difficult job market and sluggish economy. Best of luck with all of your future projects. I hope to meet you at your book signing.
Fantastic. I can think of all kinds of ways to use this- taking in the laundry, packing up the picnic stuff, having
guests wait a few minutes before the outdoor wedding ... knowing when to begin the parade!
Never been able to find this app in the App Store. How do I find it?
That's probably because it sounds like they haven't finished it yet. They mentioned a prototype, but that basically means a test version that they wrote for themselves so that they could try it out and test it before making it available to the public (you don't want to use something that hasn't been tested, do you?).
The article clearly indicates it is still in development and should be released next March.
It's not on yet, next spring...read the article....dahh.
Customer: "Hey! I paid $5 for this app and it said it would rain at 3:15 but it didn't rain until 3:45!"
Company: "Look at the buried fine print where we predicted that one molecule of H2O will drop 1" somewhere in the atmosphere within 5 square miles of the area."
Not!
Witchcraft! Witchcraft! Throw it in the river and see if it floats!
I will only be impressed when they can tell you exactly where each rain drop will fall. Nice app though, kudo's to the weatherman
My breasts can predict the weather too. ::feeling them:: There's a 30% chance that it is already raining.
Your statistics appear to be artifiicially enchanced specifically to support your point(s).
Absolutely ludicrous! I'm a meteorologist and this is another absurd claim.
Well, I can hold *YOU* personally responsible for poor weather predictions then!
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Richard – I am also a meteorologist, and taught operational weather forecasting for the Department of Defense for a long time. The BEST forecasting technique, short term, is continuity and extrapolation. This is all that they have done. Their idea had merit, but as they indicate, it is ONLY viable for the short term. Trends may not persist; patterns change.
Agree with Dennis on this one. All they're doing is extrapolating the current track of radar echoes and correlating it with where the user is located by GPS. I could write an algorithm like that. I see it's usefulness for small things like those mentioned. I do take offense that the developers don't seem to understand that meteorology is all about fluid dynamics...they haven't discovered anything new there. Also don't get why they think meteorolgy is stuck decades back? We have new research and development going on constantly.
lreeubgos on February 28, 2011 thanx man i lost the main remote and only had the 2nd remote got it all running again
APP =another poinlless program. So someone finally figured out how to look at a online radar. Been doing this for years on a old PC. This will just be another distraction for someone while driving. People dont understand the dangers that these "smart phones" cause when in use by "dumb people"
MySamisbest on June 23, 2011 @columbuscrewfan20 4 4 is 4wd you can cngahe it from 2wd 4 high and 4 low and no it isnt standard 4 2 is rear wheel drive
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$5 to $10 for this app, ANY app? No way. $0.99 max. or free.
hi, Lisa! Been a fan for years, my hubby loves you too! I was sitting here woirkng on my computer last week with the diamonique show on in the background and when you talked about your web site, my little ears perked up! So here I am. I think a book sounds great. I know I will buy it and I am sure it will be good. Love your spirit, you make me smile and I look forward to whatever you do next. I am staying tuned! xo, mary
Big freaking deal. I already have Rain Alarm free for this. Works great.
I went to SUNY Albany (located right by Troy)...this has to be the biggest thing to come out of that region in 20 years haha
I agree! I live across the Hudson in East Greenbush and my jaw dropped when I saw these guys were from Troy.
While it is a neat idea and has some utility it is important to note that it does not rain uniformly across a storm mass so "precisely when and where " is at best an exaggeration. It does tell you when you are out from a front.
If you want TRULY accuracte rain predictions, mix internet RADAR with GPS, and an onboard barometric pressure sensor. One of my old HTC tilts had one as part of the sensor package. Apple DID NOT at the time, and based off this article...still does not..
If you want TRULY accuracte rain predictions, mix internet RADAR with GPS, and an onboard barometric pressure sensor. One of my old HTC tilts had one as part of the sensor package. Apple DID NOT at the time, and based off this article...still does not.
and apologies for the double post !
No phone had this, why single out apple? Im not even sure youre telling the truth
Probably because Apple hasn't done a good job of doing anything since they existed, the average person is just too stupid to realize it.
I believe the new Samsung Galaxy Nexus has a barometer in it. Up to developers to use it.